When in February 2022 Russia’s president for life embarked on a speedy invasion of Ukraine confident from security service (FSB) reporting that he could overthrow an unpopular régime even without the element of surprise, Putin never imagined where he would end up today, over a year later, mistrusted from the far right as well as the liberal left, with an economy on crutches, an air force effectively out of action (pilot training, servicing and fuel), and the army restless, if no longer overtly mutinous.

The Russian armed forces are unquestionably by tonnage formidable in size and weight. Yet low morale worsened by inefficiency in fighting for a cause that does not make much sense is a severe problem, and now doing so alongside the wretched refuse recruited from the country’s finest prisons, is no way to succeed. Chronic inner weaknesses have emerged that also raise unanswered questions about the loyalty of the Russian officer corps. The signal complaint is the manifest incompetence of the Ministry of Defence headed in the majority by summer soldiers who are not respected, for they never even passed out as officers, though nonetheless plastered with unearned medals led by general of Freedonia, Groucho (Shoigu) – not even by the look of him much of a boxer in his youth. Shoigu, however, has one distinctive quality, which is outstanding: unswerving loyalty to Putin. But he really needs a head on his shoulders as well if the war is to be won. Ukraine is not Syria.

Unrest within the army is now spreading from the Ukrainian front right into the Russian legislature like a canker simply because the underlying causes of the uprising under Prigozhin have not been erased. Major-General Ivan Popov, deputy commander of the 58th (combined arms) army, part of the southern military district, is widely credited with blocking the Ukrainian counter-offensive of 3 June pressing towards the Sea of Azov. Writing under the nom de guerre “Spartak”, Popov laid into his superiors verbally no differently than had Prigozhin. Former commander of the 58th, deputy Andrei Gurulev republished Popov’s mutinous appeal that had been originally confined to military channels.

In response the Secretary of the General Council of United Russia, First Deputy Speaker of the Federation Council Andrei Turchak reprimanded his colleague for political show-boating. Crucially, Popov complained about lack of the essentials of war, including “combat, logistics, the effectiveness of counter-bombardment, the lack of artillery reconnaissance stations, etc.” In contrast to Turchak, Chairman of the State Duma Defence Committee Colonel-General Andrei Kartapolov came to Popov’s support and commented : “The most important skill of any boss is to see problems and listen to his subordinates. Therefore, I think that those who are supposed to do this have heard, seen and will take action. “Popov should serve in the army. This is a promising general. He has everything ahead of him. Let’s wait,” Kartapolov told reporters.

Putin has had more than a bad day. Dissatisfaction has now hit the streets as well. Nezavisimaya gazeta informs us by headline, “The Ultrpatriots are dissatisfied with the supreme military leadership.” The organiser of a rally against the Ministry of Defence, demanding the resignation of Shoigu and Gerasimov, his deputy, was locked away for a mere 15 days. A fine could have been inflicted but would have taken only minutes to rais. Its instigator, Vlad Balyasnikov, runs “The Other Russia of E.V. Limonov” – not exactly the catchiest title – named after the recently deceased self-declared National Bolshevik Limonov. They are known as the “limonovtsy“. Another source of right extremism is the “Club of Angry Patriots” that emerged from those fighting the irregular war in the Donbas. Thus far the lunatic fringe is still on the fringe. But under the conditions of a failing war, the Bolsheviks once rose from being a lunatic fringe to something rather more significant. It is something Putin must be only too aware of, though he knows Balyasnikov is no Lenin. But let the unrest within the military at the front join with the likes of the limonovtsy, the régime will have to bend with the wind or face something much more serious than Prigozhin’s failed mutiny.

When NATO leaders are weighing up the odds of fighting on to liberate Eastern Ukraine and the chances of a negotiated settlement, they will of course bear in mind Russia’s growing political disarray. Some seem to argue that merely by military means peace can be secured. Much more needs to be weighed in the balance, even without taking into account Turkish and Chinese hopes that the war can somehow be negotiated away before more damage is inflicted on Russia and international relations in general. Skirting the dangers of thermonuclear war is not something to be left unattended. And thus far no commentators absorbed in the debates on this war pay any attention to the potential crash in the world economy that looms ahead with the international corporate and sovereign debt crisis, topped by an unwelcome and lasting commodity boom.

3.07.2023 21:00:00