The Ukraine Effect: China Reconsiders Seizing Taiwan

When Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine back in February he caught everyone by surprise but he craftily managed to make it look as though the Chinese were not only privy to his decision but approving of it. Had his two day Blitzkrieg worked, no doubt China would have gladly allowed people to believe what they wanted. Hence speculation arose in the American media that China would before long move to invade Taiwan. The temperature rose in the Far East sufficiently to prompt the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, though over eighty but always a bag or two packed for overseas jollies at public expense, to fly off to Taiwan – the White House aghast at the latest display of her bloated narcissism – to offer her irreplaceable support to the besieged people of a one-time dictatorship.

Nothing succeeds like success; and, of course, nothing fails like failure. What are friends for? The least one can do is learn from their mistakes. No sooner does Russia suffer its second major setback in the war against Ukraine (the first being the withdrawal from northern Ukraine in acknowledgement that seizing the capital Kyiv was a step too far) with the loss of Kharkiv and Izyum in north-east Ukraine to its impressive armed forces than the Russian press begins speculating on what this means for China and its much advertised ambitions to take Taiwan.

The writer in Nezavisimaya gazeta lauds the progress made in Sino-Soviet relations and acknowledges that – evidently in contrast to Russia – “China has immeasurably greater economic power and influence on the world stage”. He goes on to quote Alexander Lomanov, deputy head of the renowned research Institute of World Economy and International Relations. Lomanov, head of its Centre for Asian-Pacific studies, argues that in the event of conflict “the USA and the West will supply Taiwan with intelligence data, it will send advisers, up-to-date weaponry, and mercenaries. China’s attitude to Russia will not change. What will change and is already changing is China’s understanding of what is militarily and strategically possible. In other words, in China they recognise that one must not repeat the mistakes of others.” The others, of course, are the Russians.

Nezavisimaya gazeta:

13.09.2022 20:45:00

События в Украине отодвинули возвращение Тайваня Китаю на долгий срок

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Российский пример заставляет Пекин быть осмотрительнее в военной стратегии

 Владимир Скосырев